Journal Publications and Reports

Method development for the UNAIDS estimates: June 2015
Report and recommendations from a meeting of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections held in Boston, USA, 2-4 June 2015.
Migration, sexual behaviour, and HIV risk: a general population cohort in rural South Africa
McGrath N, Newell M-L, Hosegood V, Eaton JW

Lancet HIV, 2015 ; 2(6) : e223-e224
A Comparison of South African National HIV Incidence Estimates: A Critical Appraisal of Different Methods
Stover J., Rehle T, Johnson L, Hallett T, Kim A, Odido H, Onoya D, Jooste S, Shisana O, Puren A, Parekh B, Mahy M

PLOS One, 2015 ; Published online : 31 July
Assessment of epidemic projections using recent HIV survey data in South Africa: a validation analysis of ten mathematical models of HIV epidemiology in the antiretroviral therapy era
Stover J., Hallett TB, Bacaer N, Bershteyn A, Cambiano V, Cori A, Dorrington RE, Fraser C, Gopalappa C, Hontelez JAC, Johnson LF, Klein DJ, Phillips AN, Pretorius C, Rehle TM, Eaton JW

The Lancet Global Health, 2015 ; 3(10) : e577-e578

Strengthening HIV Estimates: EPP/Spectrum 2015
Report and recommendations from a meeting of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections held in Geneva, Switzerland, 27-29 October 2014.
UNAIDS – Developing subnational estimates of HIV from survey data
Country reports for 11 countries have been produced which describe methods used to generate subnational estimates of HIV prevalence and the number of people living with HIV from survey data, with a particular focus on the development of maps of estimates at second administrative level through use of the prevR model as a data visualization resource. Reports are currently available for the following countries: Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea, Haiti, Lesotho, Malawi, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe.

UNAIDS – The Gap Report
The UNAIDS Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic 2014 presents the 2013 estimates of new HIV infections, numbers of people receiving antiretroviral treatment, AIDS-related deaths and HIV among children.

Future considerations for EPP & Spectrum and new approaches for generating estimates
Report and recommendations from a meeting of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections held in Seattle, USA, 24-25 April 2014.
The 2013/14 UNAIDS Estimates Methods: Extending the scope and granularity of HIV estimates
A special supplement of AIDS with papers documenting the developments of the methods endorsed by UNAIDS and used by countries to produce HIV estimates and related indicators for the UNAIDS Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic 2014.

Ghys P, Case KK, Porter K, Hallett TB

AIDS, 2014 ; 28 (Suppl 4) : S411-S542
Why the proportion of transmission during early-stage HIV infection does not predict the long-term impact of treatment on HIV incidence
Hallett TB, Eaton JW

PNAS, 2014 ; 111 : 16202-162