Publications – UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections

Updates to the Spectrum/AIM model for estimating key HIV indicators at national and subnational levels.
Patten G., Davies M.A., Glaubius R., Stover J., Yiannoutsos C., Mofenson L., Dugdale C. M.

AIDS, 2019 ;
Extending visit intervals for clinically stable patients on antiretroviral therapy: multicohort analysis of HIV programs in Southern Africa.
Chimbetete C., Hobbins M., Kunzekwenyika C., Johnson L.F., Egger M., Grimsrud A, Haas A.D., Ford N., Mugglin C., Fox M.P., Euvrard J., van Lettow, M., Prozesky H., Sikazwe I.

Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 2019 ;
National HIV testing and diagnosis coverage in sub-Saharan Africa: a new modelling tool for estimating the ‘first 90’ from program and survey data.
Hankins C.A., Johnson L.F., Jahn A, Marsh K., Eaton J.W., Maheu-Giroux M., Doyle C.M., Godin A., Lanièce Delaunay C., Abo K., Mbofana F., Boily M.C., Buckeridge D.L.

AIDS, 2019 ;
Optimal HIV testing strategies for South Africa: a model-based evaluation of population-level impact and cost-effectiveness.
Johnson L.F., van Rensburg C., Govathson C., Meyer-Rath G.

Nature Scientific Reports, 2019 ;
HIV surveillance based on routine testing data from antenatal clinics in Malawi (2011–2018): measuring and adjusting for bias from imperfect testing coverage
Jahn A, Kalua T, Eaton J.W., Maheu-Giroux M., Mganga A.

AIDS, 2019 ;
Global variations in mortality in adults after initiating antiretroviral treatment: an updated analysis of the IeDEA cohort collaboration.
Choi J.Y., Jiamsakul A., Bakoyannis G., Althoff K., Johnson L.F., Yiannoutsos C., Eaton J.W., Egger M., Anderegg N., Zaniewski E., Rebeiro P.F., Carriquiry G., Nash D., Yotebieng M., Ekouevi D.K., Holmes C.B., Sohn A.

AIDS, 2019 ;
rdhs: an R package to interact with The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program datasets.
Eaton JW, Watson OJ, FitzJohn R

Wellcome Open Research, 2019 ;
Parameter estimates for trends and patterns of excess mortality among persons on antiretroviral therapy in high-income European settings.
Stover J., Trickey A., van Sighem A., Abgrall S., Grabar S., Bonnet F., May M. T.

AIDS, 2019 ;
Are associations between HIV and human papillomavirus transmission due to behavioural confounding or biological effects?
Johnson L.F., Welte A., Van Schalkwyk C., Moodley J.

STI BMJ, 2019 ;
Population-level adult mortality following the expansion of antiretroviral therapy in Rakai, Uganda.
Kigozi G, Makumbi F, Reynolds SJ, Gray R, Eaton JW, Wawer M, Reniers G, Sewankambo N, Slaymaker E, Marston M, Kabudula C, Zaba B, Lutalo T, Serwadda D, Nabukalu D, Nalugoda F, Blom S, Risher KA

Population Studies, 2019 ;
Global, regional and country-level 90–90–90 estimates for 2018
Mahy M, Marsh K., Eaton J.W., Ghys P, Wanyeki I, Sabin K., Autenrieth C. S.

AIDS, 2019 ;
Modelling the potential impact of providing pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to pregnant and breastfeeding women in South Africa.
Johnson L.F., Bekker L.G., Joseph Davey D., Gomba Y., Coates T., Myer L.

AIDS, 2019 ;
CD4 count recovery and associated factors among individuals enrolled in the South African antiretroviral therapy programme: An analysis of national laboratory based data.
Eaton JW, Puren A, Bor J, Kufa T, Shubber Z, MacLeod W, Takuva S, Carmona S, Gorgens M, Pillay Y, Fraser-Hurt N

PLoS One, 2019 ;
Bridging the gap between HIV epidemiology and antiretroviral resistance evolution: Modelling the spread of resistance in South Africa.
Johnson L.F., Egger M., Hauser A., Kusejko K., Wandeler G., Riou J., Goldstein F., Kouyos R.

PLoS Computation Biology, 2019 ;
HIV estimates through 2018: data for decision-making
Mahy M, Marsh K., Wanyeki I, Sabin K., Daher J., Ghys P. D.

AIDS, 2019 ;
The use of mathematical modelling studies for evidence synthesis and guideline development: a glossary.
Johnson L.F., Porgo T.V., Norris S.L., Salanti G., Simpson J.A., Low N., Egger M., Althaus C.L.

Research Synthesis Methods, 2019 ;
The Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model and the r-hybrid model.
Mahy M, Bao L., Salomon JA, Eaton J.W., Brown T., Puckett R., Glaubius, Mutai K., Stover J., Hallett TB

AIDS, 2019 ;
Non-disclosure of HIV testing history in population-based surveys: implications for estimating a UNAIDS 90-90-90 target.
Zaba B, Eaton JW, Rentsch CT, Reniers G, Machemba R, Slaymaker E, Marston M, Wringe A, Gourlay A, Rice B, Kabudula C, Urassa M, Todd J

Global Health Action, 2019 ;
Relative patterns of sexual activity and fertility among HIV positive and negative women-Evidence from 46 DHS.
Eaton JW, Marston M, Zaba B

PLoS One, 2019 ;
The use of mathematical modelling studies for evidence synthesis and guideline development: a glossary.
Johnson L.F., Porgo T.V., Norris S.L., Salanti G., Simpson J.A., Low N., Egger M., Althaus C.L.

Research Synthesis Methods, 2019 ;
The Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model and the r-hybrid model.
Mahy M, Bao L., Salomon JA, Eaton J.W., Brown T., Puckett R., Glaubius, Mutai K., Stover J., Hallett TB

AIDS, 2019 ;
Non-disclosure of HIV testing history in population-based surveys: implications for estimating a UNAIDS 90-90-90 target.
Zaba B, Eaton JW, Rentsch CT, Reniers G, Machemba R, Slaymaker E, Marston M, Wringe A, Gourlay A, Rice B, Kabudula C, Urassa M, Todd J

Global Health Action, 2019 ;
Population-level mortality associated with HIV exposure in HIV-uninfected infants in Botswana and South Africa: a model-based evaluation.
Johnson L.F., Slogrove A.L., Powis K.M.

Journal of Tropical Pediatrics, 2019 ;
Estimating and projecting the number of new HIV diagnoses and incidence in Spectrumʼs case surveillance and vital registration tool.
Marsh K., Eaton J.W., Mahiane S. G., Glaubius R.

AIDS, 2019 ;
Summarizing the results and methods of the 2019 Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS HIV estimates.
Mahy M, Johnson L.F., Case K.C., Marsh K., Supervie V., Eaton J.W.

AIDS, 2019 ;