Methods for generating subnational estimates of HIV epidemiology

This meeting was follow-up to the July 2013 Reference Group consultation on, Identifying populations at greatest risk of HIV infection – Geographic hotspots and key populations. Hosted by the HIV Modelling Consortium, and held in Nairobi, Kenya, the aims of this meeting were to review modelling methods for generating sub-national estimates of HIV epidemiology, agree on methods to pursue for further development and devise a research agenda.

At this meeting, the recommendation for development in the short term was to pursue the prevR method. This method uses spatially distributed DHS observations to generate visualisations of subnational estimates of HIV prevalence and the number of people living with HIV at the second administrative level. The following country reports have now been published using this method.